We're in for a short-term rally. As in a rally that will last, at most, two or three weeks (in my opinion). For many charts, a few weeks of upside will be enough time to shape out a right shoulder to complete their head-and-shoulders patterns. I'm urging you to take profits in the coming weeks if you've got 'em because they won't be there for long.
In a month we'll forget that this rally ever existed because we'll have fallen so low. As much as bulls want to maintain their long term outlook, it just won't work with 2016's volatility. Oh, and let's not forget that most of the charts I'm seeing are a mess. Almost every single one of them. For example... Goldman Sachs (GS)? Awful. Apple (AAPL)? Terrible. 3M (MMM)? Don't get me started. Visa (V)? Vomit. Nike (NKE)? Just don't do it. My advice? Do yourself a favor and short Apple and 3M into earnings this Tuesday. I don't see a reason to be long either going into the quarter. If you have a reason, please let me know; but right now I see nothing. I'm calling for a retest of 1950 on the S&P 500 followed by a rollover to 1770. Just be patient -- I'll see you there.
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Based on Nike's previous behavior after beating earnings, I expect the stock to continue its run for a short while, then pull back. How much of a pullback? In the two earnings beats shown below, the stock shortly gave up about 4% each time (from the high), so I'd look for a pullback of that magnitude before jumping in.
Read: After a 1233% run, this stock STILL has more upside.
Read: A teenager's take on three strong and relevant trends (and how to play them). A safe, easy and legitimate way to make passive income. Here.
Historically, Nike has been a stock that moves up in stages. (See below) This is typically very bullish behavior, and I touched upon this in one of my first posts, highlighting a bull-flag I spotted in Nike's chart. That was back when the stock was trading at about $100 - read it here. I hope you bought some shares under $100 like I did (and suggested in the post), seeing as Nike is up considerably while the the Dow has been flat.
Nike reported their earnings following the close on June 25, and beat expectations on both the top and bottom line. The average consensus was for earnings per share of 83 cents on $7.69 billion in revenue. Another key metric that analysts were also looking for was future orders; they were expecting an increase of 11%, and Nike reported future orders up 13%, not including the impact of the strong dollar.
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